Bayesian Epistemology by Luc Bovens

By Luc Bovens

Chance idea is more and more very important to philosophy. Bayesian probabilistic types supply us methods of having to grips with primary difficulties approximately details, coherence, reliability, affirmation, and testimony, and therefore exhibit how we will be able to justify ideals and review theories. Bovens and Hartmann offer a scientific consultant to using probabilistic equipment not only in epistemology, but additionally in philosophy of technological know-how, balloting thought, jurisprudence, and cognitive psychology.

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The ‘deductive relations of entailment and compatibility’ and the ‘inductive relations of fittingness and incongruity’. We propose to think of the internal consistency of a theory in the same way as Salmon thinks of the consistency of a theory with accepted theories. Hence, the internal consistency of a theory matches the epistemologist's notion of the coherence of an information set: How well do the various components of the theory fit together, how congruous are these components? Salmon also writes that this criterion of consistency ‘seem[s]…to pertain to assessments of the prior probabilities of the theories’ and ‘cr[ies] out for a Bayesian interpretation’ (1990: 198).

E. that all sources have the same true positive rate p and the same false positive rate q. This seems like an unreasonably strong assumption, since, when we are gathering information in the 46 COHERENCE actual world, we typically trust some sources less and some sources more. But our assessment of the relative coherence of information sets has nothing to do with how much we actually trust our information sources. As a matter of fact, we may assess the coherence of an information set without having any clue whatsoever who the sources are of the items in this information set or what their degrees of reliability are.

On the one hand, one might say that S is less coherent, since the propositions in S are probabilistically independent whereas has two propositions, viz. e. they pick out coextensive sets of suspects. On the other hand, one might say that S is more coherent, since contains a proposition 14 Observe in the diagram that of the suspects wear Coco Chanel shoes and have a French accent; of the suspects drive Fords; of the suspects with Coco Chanel shoes and French accents drive Fords. We assume that the remaining 84% of the suspects with Coco Chanel shoes and French accents drive Renaults: .

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